November weather results piled on to the poor October showing (-8%) as Available Rounds change for the month was -21% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). The increasing magnitude of the drop materially depressed the Year-to-Date (YtD) figure which now approaches the “red zone” of greater than -2% (but still currently registering in our Neutral range though of +/-2%). Regional breadth for the YtD period remained negative, as more primarily Great Lakes and North Central regions were pushed into negative territory by the November weather. This reading now registers 1:3 with 8 weather-favorable regions countered by 23 weather-unfavorable regions (the remaining 14 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, poor weather countenance is once again concentrated in weekdays vs. weekends which should provide some shelter from the storm. This continues to fulfill the prophecy (oops, wrong book, it is Advent though), I mean bears out our summer forecast that the back half of the year was going to be challenging weather-wise and likely depress the full year performance. For those interested in knowing the extent of the weather damage in Q4, Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’17 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for October published by Golf Datatech were down as expected but held a consolation prize in that the deficit was shallower than the previously-published Golf Playable Hours (GPH) results producing a Utilization Rate gain for the month. For the YtD period, the October gain continued to chip away at the Utilization deficit as the long-term pattern continues of demand basically following weather trends (for the optimists, that means barring natural disasters the sky won’t fall on rounds demand; for the pessimists, that means we’re unable to grow demand beyond the narrow weather variances). Figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “One look at the map of the results shows the bloodbath of red figures for the month for nearly every market above the Mason Dixon line and extending that to the West Coast. November rounds results are not going to be pretty so brace yourselves. Fortunately key markets in the full-season geographies further south and on the Atlantic Coast had at least neutral weather so that should insulate the national numbers from the shock slightly. At the market level for YtD Utilization, the majority of markets (40 of 61) continue to track in the neutral zone but among the non-neutrals the breadth continues to be negative with “laggards” outnumbering “leaders” by 2:1. Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, Miami (#14) continues to be the only leader in posting positive Utilization (greater than 2 points gain) with flat rounds against substantially worse weather while Minneapolis (#22) continues its reign as the largest laggard with the double-whammy of rounds down against favorable weather followed by Philadelphia (#18) and Orlando (#3).”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 12/15/17.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Trackingservice ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
