December weather results were “merry” as Available Rounds change for the month was +8% at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). That slightly buoyed the final tally as the Year-to-Date (YtD) figure bounced slightly to -2% putting the national weather results for the year in our Neutral range of +/-2%. The size and distribution of the gain nudged the Regional breadth figures positively but we still finished the year at 1:2 with 11 weather-favorable regions countered by 18 weather-unfavorable regions (the remaining 16 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at YtD weather impact performance by day-of-week, the weekends turned in better performance which should provide some marginal support for rounds and revenue results. Looking back to January ’17 when we made the annual forecast, we missed that number by ~1 percentage point (to the downside) which is pretty amazing for a national, annual call on Golf Playable Hours (GPH) 12 months in advance! For those interested in knowing the extent of the weather damage in Q4, Pellucid subscribers have access each month to our forecast for ’17 year-end GPH for Total US, the comparison to the 10-year average, the regional breadth details and the day-of-week breakdowns via the Geographic Weather Impact Tracking report or Pellucid Publications suite through the Client Login section at the Pellucid website. Cognilogic facility weather impact subscribers also know these figures for their individual facility (go to www.pellucidcorp.com to subscribe or register for more information and in exchange we’ll send you a sample of the ’17 1st half actual results to review).
Played Rounds data for November published by Golf Datatech repeated the October pattern registering down by double-digits but not as unfavorable as our previously-published Golf Playable Hours (GPH) results producing a Utilization Rate gain for the 2nd consecutive month. For the YtD period, the November Utilization gain kept us within shouting distance of parity performance for the year and extends the current pattern of rounds largely following what Mother Nature provides. Figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) level are also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “As predicted last month with the -21% GPH results, rounds dropped by double-digits but none of our readers should have been surprised by that news. The good news for the year is that most of our 12-month season markets finished no worse than flat in weather while the SE Coast from VA to GA benefitted from positive GPH results ranging from +2-5% for the year! At the market level for YtD Utilization, the majority of markets (38 of 61) continue to track in the neutral zone but we closed the gap between “laggards” and “leaders” with the November results. Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, Miami (#14) looks to be a lock for the year’s Utilization gain leader (> 3 point gain) while Minneapolis (#22) will likely get the crown for the largest laggard with rounds down against flat weather chased by San Francisco which is making a late surge with a 7% decline in rounds in November against slightly favorable weather. Winners will be announced next month!”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 1/15/18.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership (Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2015 State of the Industry, 2015 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2014 Top 25 US Golf Markets reports, Golf Participant Base Projection analysis) for $495 annually.
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com
