Volume 23 Issue 10, 2024 Will be Record-Setting on Multiple Dimensions: Wait…We Only Have Visibility to Rounds?
I recently finished compiling the month-final figures for the Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) portfolio of facilities for September month and Year-to-Date (YtD) and the picture they paint of the ’24 season is remarkable and record-setting on the majority of measures we track. Our subscribers provide the “3 numbers” monthly and we turn those into 8 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in a single scorecard and their collective results are aggregated up into the only reasonable, national “proxy” for industry health for the current year vs. last year (and back to ’19 for those participants who also provide their historical monthlies).
In this issue, we’ll take a look at that portfolio aggregate that we’re using as a national, public golf proxy and quantify how remarkable the breadth of golf’s success is going to be for the ’24 season (assuming that the world as we know it doesn’t end in the Q4 period which is what it would take to knock us off track using historical norms):
- Let’s start with what (most of) you likely know – As reported, faithfully (over 20+ years) and benevolently (at no charge) by Golf Datatech, Public rounds Sep YtD are +1.9%. This unfortunately leaves us with a raft of related questions such as, “What’s the actual number, is that a record pace/level, did weather help, did it come due to discounted rates?” etc.
- What we and the GMRC participants know for the portfolio is that, through September (which is historically ~80% of annual rounds nationally), the performance scorecard is bogey-free on our 8 GMRC KPIs; 6 up, 2 neutral, none down. Many of those metrics will be modern-era records none of which is conveyed in “rounds up 2%”
- Having visibility to a broader set of metrics provides guidance we can use in CY ’25 planning by answering questions like, “Did revenue lead/pace/trail the rounds increase, did we earn that volume increase, how much was due to pricing, what of our pricing actions in ’24 stuck?” (i.e. the current burning question of will the party continue?)
From where I sit and studying the GMRC numbers for the past 3 years, I liken this to what I call the “Big Bertha effect” (with respect to the late Ely Callaway). Historically in golf clubs (particularly drivers), it was accepted wisdom that you could succeed either by selling higher-priced clubs in modest quantities or selling a bunch of clubs at lower prices. With Big Bertha and the pricing/marketing/selling strategy behind it, Ely proved you could do both and laid the foundation for long-term growth vs. boom and bust cycles (looking at you, TMAG in the olden days). For our spectators, you can join the World of Pellucid and start that journey (with this issue) one of three ways:
- Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership for $495/yr (most comprehensive coverage & detail) – Annual subscribers get access to the following:
- Outside the Ropes monthly digital newsletter (including this issue for starters!)
- Annual State of the Industry report portfolio (PowerPoint presentation, PDF commentary report, access to Jim/Stuart video of presentation)
- Geographic Weather Impact Tracking (US, 45 regions, 61 markets) or Cognilogic for Golf Playable Hours/Capacity Rounds for individual facilities
- National Consumer Franchise Health Scorecard (expanded data and tables underlying this issue’s summary figures)
- Subscribe to OtR, 12 monthly issues for $250/yr. Subscribers also get access to the historical archive of past issues (last two years) via the members-only section of the Pellucid website
- Subscribe to Golf Market Research Center (for operators wanting a combination of insights and action tools) – In addition to an OtR subscription (hence, this issue), you’ll get the State of the Industry presentation along with the full suite of Performance Tracking reports and weather impact services (Cognilogic for historical Golf Playable Hours/Capacity Rds, Foresight for the 60-day forecast for your facility location for Capacity Rds and daily key weather forecast variables)
