November Golf Weather Impact:
Tough Sledding (even in warm climates)
November brought Black Friday to the golf industry as November Golf Playable Hours (GPH) declined 24% compared to the same month last year. That result seriously dented Year-to-Date (YtD) deficit which declined a full point to -6%. Regional GPH breadth for the YtD period also swung more unfavorable with a region ratio of 1:5 with 6 favorable regions countered by 33 unfavorable regions (remaining 6 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, the deficit swung back to a weekday prominence and, among weekdays, all showing deficits. The year-end forecast (all 1 month of it left) is reflecting the challenging year and it appears that our January ’18 forecast was (uncharacteristically for Pellucid) too optimistic. Our Pellucid Publications, Weather Impact and Cognilogic clients are in-the-know on the day of week variances as well as the year-end forecast; if you’d like to be similarly enlightened and have early-warning guidance for marketing and expense decisions, you can subscribe to any of those products using the link at the end of this article.
Played Rounds data for October published by Golf Datatech also disappointed registering -10% for the month vs. YA (ouch!). The more insightful view, after factoring in weather, is that Utilization was significantly off, reflecting Pellucid’s previously-reported “down” (but not 10% down) weather for the month. For the YtD period, prior Utilization gains continue to erode as the deficit in Played Rounds marginally trails unfavorable weather results but at the national level we’re still slightly positive for the year. Beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “The November weather results were even more universally poor than October for every region east of the Rockies. For the YtD period, there are only 6 of 45 regions showing GPH gains. Looking at October YtD results for Utilization at the 61 markets level however, we continue the pattern of favorable breadth to gainers as rounds declines are shallower than weather unfavorability with a 2:1 ratio (14 markets showing Utilization gains against 7 markets showing declines with the remaining/majority 40 occupying the neutral zone). Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, 6 continue to show Utilization gains with Phoenix and Denver now showing 5+ pt gains (both driven by rounds increases, that’s encouraging). Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25 Golf Markets posted Utilization gains, how much and what the dynamics are behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web).”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 10/15/18.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership ($495 annually includes Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2017 State of the Industry (Commentary report just released!), 2016 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2017 Top 25 US Golf Markets Scorecard (just updated!)
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.