Golf Weather Impact: October Decline is “Just a Flesh Wound”
October weather results followed the September’s trend as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) decreased at the same rate for a second consecutive month falling 2% vs. Year-Ago (YA). That basically held the YtD deficit at -5%. Regional breadth YtD improved slightly but remained negative at 1:9 with only 3 favorable regions vs. 28 unfavorables and 14 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%). Subscribers to either the Pellucid Publications Membership or the Geographic Weather Impact report get the 45 regional breakdowns, the 61 markets figures, the day-of-week weather impact and the Year-End National GPH forecast figure as well as our full commentary on the results every month.
Played Rounds for September as published by Golf Datatech once again mirrored our previously-reported modest GPH unfavorability coming in at -2% which produced flat Utilization for the month. According to Datatech, both Public and Private contributed equally to the 2% decline. For the YtD period, Utilization manages to stay above the 60% level which represents a 2-point increase over last year.
Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, “The 2nd month of the loosely-defined shoulder season for the northern climates (Sep-Nov) was once again a slight weather “downer” but we haven’t experienced any wild shifts in weather (i.e. +-5% or more) that we sometimes see in Q2 and Q4. The unfortunate news is that we’re not getting any weather late-season help so pretty much what you had coming out of the core season is what you’re going to get for the year. Looking back at September Utilization, we’re returning to a pattern where rounds follow weather but, importantly, we’re doing that at a 60% Utilization level or better vs. pre-pandemic that pattern was treading water at the 50-55% Utilization level. Diving deeper into the September YtD market-level leaders & laggards for Utilization, Minneapolis and Dallas continue atop the leaderboard (both in the face of crushing year-to-year GPH negative comps, see your market-level breakdown sheet for the figures) while Boston leapt into the laggard leadership position with a 6% decline in rounds YtD against flat weather impact followed by previously-identified laggard markets of NYC and Washington DC (both of those also powered by rounds declines greater than their weather impact). Returning to the October weather, we’ve compiled the preliminary results from our Golf Market Research Center portfolio of courses and they’re showing a modest gain in Utilization (rounds slightly up against weather slightly down) so Jim’s call for minus 1-2% missed the mark. Our GMRC subscribers already know their weather-adjusted October performance as well as the 60-day forecast for Capacity Rounds for their facility; you could too (hint, hint).”
Speaking of the GMRC and the ability for courses to see their monthly performance in comparative reports the day the month closes, we’re still offering a free 2-wk trial of the tool. We know from our visibility to the Golf Revenue numbers that courses are generally flush with cash (we’ve also seen all the public domain articles on renovations, massive CapEx spending etc. to corroborate) so we’d hazard a guess that the $500 investment decision isn’t being hampered by lack of funds. Program participants have been able to view graphic, single page monthly trend reports for Rounds and Utilization from ’19-’22 as well as having a 7 measure KPI single page report for any month and YtD period for which they entered data. The GMRC gives you visibility to your Market Profile and, after you enter your Rounds, Golf Revenue and Peak Season GF Rate by month, to immediately see your results through our comparative reports with integrated weather impact. So how do you “get in on the action”? Glad you asked…
- You can email jim@pellucidcorp.com, to subscribe (see below for benefits) and get started by inputting your information through December or if you’d like to engage in the 2-wk trial
- If you’d like more information you have two options:
- Watch the 18 minute GoToWebinar recording of the program overview and a demonstration of the portal and reports (fill in your name and email and it will open the video link; you’re not signing up for anything)
- Review the 2-pg program overview
- Read the recent Outside the Ropes that illustrates, using the GMRC portfolio’s May results, the insights available using real data
Here’s the details on what you get in the current promo deal:
- GMRC Market profile (golfers, supply/mix/demand balance, Utilization etc.)
- Monthly trends report (Rounds & Utilization, any month and YtD ’19-’21)
- KPI Scorecard (7 KPIs for month & YtD, single page, Year Ago comparisons)
- Cognilogic (historical facility-specific Golf Playable Hours and Capacity Rounds, normally sold as separate service at $180/yr) and
- Foresight (brand new, facility-level 60-day Capacity Rounds forecast and key weather variables used to produce it, normally sold separately at $360/yr)
- National Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard and commentary outlining the change in the size of the golfer base, the demographics (not as much additional diversity as advertised by the industry but expanding) and involvement levels (sold separately for $199)
- We think this package of services including GMRC at $500/yr ($450 for NGCOA members) is a great value and timely for assessing your ’22 performance and how it compares to the COVID surge years of ’21 and ‘20
Final cherry-on-top, GMRC is a product in the NGCOA SmartBuy program so there’s a member benefit (10% discount) for the annual subscription.
