’22 Two Months In: Is Covid Surge Leveling Off Or Receding?
You know that you have an analyst’s DNA when you eagerly anticipate seeing the previous month’s results within days after the calendar turns. We’ve long had the ability to make the weather impact “call” the day after month closing and now, with the introduction last year and continuing expansion of the Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) and our subscribers punctual submissions, we have visibility to Golf Revenue (GRev), Rounds, RevpAR and Utilization shortly thereafter. That gives us faster and broader visibility to the above question than anyone else in the industry and has been of interest to outside investments entities (PE & VC) as well as corporate course buying entities pursuing golf as a “momentum” play. At some point in the future, we anticipate that the broad industry stakeholder coalition will catch up on the need for and value in this information & insights (more on that later).
In this issue, I’ll look at the Jan-Feb ’22 results for several of the metrics on our Key Performance Indicators (KPI) scorecard and what they’re telling us about whether the COVID rounds wave has crested and, if so, whether it appears to be leveling at a new high water mark or receding:
- Golf Revenue – Was up strongly in Feb. which offset a poor Jan. start. That results in a Year-to-Date (YtD) “comp” of -4% vs. ’21; receding modestly monthly from the COVID surge
- Rounds – Followed GRev pattern, up in most recent month clawing back most of the January deficit resulting in a Feb YtD “comp” of -3% vs. ’21, also receding modestly
- KPI Scorecard – brings in the weather component (Utilization and RevpAR) which shows us the above “unadjusted” metrics are being slightly artificially supported by better weather down 6 pts and -9% respectively through 2 months
For our subscribers, we’ll get into the actual numbers and more detail on the above metrics and show what the monthly industry performance summary scorecard looks like. For our Executive Summary, non owner/operator readers, consider this an invitation to subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership for a modest investment of $495/yr (or you can now subscribe on the $45/mo payment plan) and you’ll get to see this monthly going forward along with the State of the Industry, Outside the Ropes and the monthly Nat’l/Reg’l/Mkt Weather Impact.
For all our owner/operator readers out there, you can see all these metrics immediately at the end of every month by joining our merry little band of GMRC subscribers who want single page comparison reports, weather-adjusted and trend views of their Golf Revenue & Rounds data as well historical weather impact and 60 day forecast Capacity Rounds specific to your course/weather station. More information can be obtained here and we’d be happy to provide referrals from one or more of our satisfied participants if needed to make the decision.
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