February Golf Weather Impact: Giving Back January Favorability
February’s results contradicted our last month headline proclamation of “many more favorable comps to come” as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) decreased 20% compared to the same month last year. That result wiped out the double-digit January gain resulting in a Year-to-Date (YtD) figure of -1% (in our neutral zone). YtD regional GPH breadth was also neutral at 1:1 with 8 favorable regions countered by 10 unfavorable regions (with 1 in the neutral zone of +/- 2% and the remaining 26 regions are out of season). Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, weekends comprised the bulk of the unfavorability while, by day, Mondays were the biggest loser. Those of you who attended the State of the Industry presentation (or bought the report already) have already seen the full year call for weather and know not only that it has to be up against an ugly ’18 but also whether the ’19 rebound will meet or exceed the 10-year average weather. The rest of you just have to guess (or order one of our weather impact reports/services to put you “in the know”).
Played Rounds data for January published by Golf Datatech was a slight surprise in not following the double-digit GPH gain, registering only +3% for the month vs. Year Ago. That produced an initial month double-digit Utilization decline (i.e. we should have done much better). For the YtD period, the figures are the same since we only have one month reported. Beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “Before I made the grand proclamation in this January release, I should have looked at and realized that we had a couple of favorable Q1 months so it wasn’t going to be all roses for every month of the year. That said, no one should jump out of any windows due to two months weather and one (ugly) month of rounds results. Looking at January results for Utilization at the 61 markets level, we did have an auspicious start to the year with negative breadth at 1:3 ratio (5 markets showing Utilization gains against 18 markets showing declines with the remaining 10 in-season markets occupying the neutral zone, not the majority outcome this year so far). Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, Utilization gainers were led by Phoenix and Tampa (the only two) while Atlanta and Dallas/Ft Worth (continuing this market’s ’18 results) vied for leadership among the laggards. Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25 Golf Markets posted Utilization gains, how much and what the dynamics are behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web).”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 3/15/19.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Trackingservice ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership ($495 annually includes Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2017 State of the Industry (Commentary report just released!), 2017 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking and the Top 25 US Golf Markets Scorecard
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (edgehillgolf@msn.com) or Order Cognilogic. You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store</a.
