April Golf Weather Impact:
Significantly Beat a Low “Comp”
April’s results, on the surface, were a significant “beat” as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) improved 19% compared to the same month last year. That padded our gain for the Year-to-Date (YtD) period which is now +9%. YtD regional GPH breadth strengthened to 1:1 with 23 favorable regions countered by 17 unfavorable regions (with 5 in the neutral zone of +/- 2% with all 45 regions now “in season” based on Pellucid’s weather-based rules). Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, both weekparts (weekday vs. weekend) were up but with negative and neutral variances when broken down to the individual days (Fridays stand out as weather-negative YtD). Once again, the Year-End (YE) forecast shows a downward revision from the previous reading so we’re having to slightly temper our early season optimism that we’ll get a significant bounce from last year’s abnormally poor weather (our subscribers and SoI attendees know the initial number, everyone else will have to either guess or order one of our weather impact reports/services (see link below) to put you “in the know”).
Played Rounds data for March published by Golf Datatech registered flat to year-ago which was disappointing when coupled with the previously-reported GPH gain which yields a drop in the key Utilization metric for the month. That drop compounded the YtD Utilization unfavorability so, once again, our ability to generate demand even matching weather continues to lag (Played Rounds down vs. Available Rounds up). As always, beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “On the surface, I’m happy with the double-digit gain in GPH for the month. It begged the question however of how the month compared to the 10-year average which showed that April, weather-wise, was basically flat vs. that benchmark of normal. So, we got a good bounce vs. a really poor April of ’18 but, like in Chicago, it was not a particularly memorable month for us as golfers with a mix of warm/cold/rain/snow (yes, we had 2 snow accumulations in April this year, go figure). So, depending on whether your course did its financial planning vs. last year or vs. the multi-year norm (our perennial recommendation), you’ll either be happy with your comparative report or concerned. Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, Seattle now stands as the only Utilization gainer while Dallas/Ft Worth and Atlanta switched spots for the leading laggard crown. Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25 Golf Markets posted Utilization gains, how much and what the diagnostics are behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web).”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go towww.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 5/15/19.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
- Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
- Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership ($495 annually includes Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2018 State of the Industry (Commentary report and Jim audio/video recording of quantitative results just released!), 2017 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking and the Top 25 US Golf Markets Scorecard (update just released, some market movement in spots 5-25)
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (email@example.com) or Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.