September Golf Weather Impact: Neutral Trend Breaks Out to the Downside
After multiple months of parity weather to ’18, September broke the trend but unfortunately to the downside as the September Golf Playable Hour (GPH) declined 4% compared to the same month last year. That result had marginal impact on our Year-to-Date (YtD) deficit which remained at -6%. The 3rd quarter turned in slightly down results which makes it our best, not-great quarter compared to quarters 1 & 2. In regional breadth for the YtD period, the unfavorability was relatively unchanged from August with a favorable/unfavorable breadth ratio of 1:3 with 9 weather-favorable regions countered by 29 weather-unfavorable regions (remaining 7 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, the deficit continues to be relatively balanced between weekdays and weekends but with a range of results comparing the Mon-Fri day-of-week as well as comparing Sat-Sun individual days (results by day-of-week and the figures for weekday and weekend available to Pellucid subscribers). The year-end forecast continued to decay slightly vs. August’s look into our crystal ball. Pellucid subscribers know what that number is and whether we’ll gain back any of the lost weather ground in the remaining months of the year. If you’d like to join them in being in-the-know regarding those important details and having early-warning guidance for marketing and expense decisions, subscribe to the monthly Geographic Weather Impact report or our Cognilogic facility-level web-based information service by following the instructions and links at the end of this article.
Played Rounds data for August published by Golf Datatech also trended to the downside when looked at in isolation registering -2% for the month vs. YA. The more insightful view, after factoring in weather, is that Utilization was again off slightly due to Pellucid’s previously-reported “flat” weather for the month. For the YtD period, prior Utilization gains are eroding as Played Rounds marginally trail weather in recent months but we’re still slightly positive for the year so we’ll take it. Beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “The September weather results were pretty much a sea of red looking at the 45 region map with positive results confined to the West and SW regions. For the YtD period, there isn’t a “green arrow” (GPH >+2%) east of the Rockies; not a single one. Looking at August YtD results for Utilization at the 61 markets level, we continue the pattern of favorable breadth to gainers as rounds declines are shallower than weather unfavorability. On the positive side, the market breadth indicator remained at 5:1 (23 markets showing Utilization gains against 4 markets showing declines with the remaining 34 occupying the neutral zone). Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, 11 continue to show Utilization gains with Denver and Detroit leading the pack with 4+ point gains (they get there with different combinations of demand and weather results though). Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25 Golf Markets posted Utilization gains, how much and what the dynamics are behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web).”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 10/15/18.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership ($495 annually includes Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2017 State of the Industry (Commentary report just released!), 2016 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking, 2017 Top 25 US Golf Markets Scorecard (just updated!)
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (firstname.lastname@example.org) or click here Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.