Another Potential Tailwind for Golf’s Player Base?
Projected Interstate Population Migration, 2025–2040
Visual Capitalist—my daily “email for data geeks”—does an excellent job of turning public-domain data into engaging visuals and useful observations. A recent edition mapped U.S. Census projections for state population changes from 2025 to 2040 (available here). If you like its approach, you can subscribe for free through the link at the bottom of the article; for full disclosure, we receive no credit or compensation if you do. Looking at the projected interstate-migration “winners” and “losers,” I wondered whether the gaining states might, on balance, be more favorable for golf than the losing states.
Because Pellucid is one of only two golf-industry entities with state-level participation rates, the next step was straightforward: pair those rates with the population projections to estimate whether migration could produce a net gain or loss in golfers. With help from my new best friend, Claude, the analysis focuses on three questions:
- Do state participation rates vary enough to make migration meaningful? Spoiler: yes—the range is roughly 2% to 11%.
- What is the projected net effect on the golfer base over 15 years, and how is that effect distributed across states?
- What should operators do—whether they are in a gaining state seeking to capture the windfall or in a losing state competing for share of a shrinking golfer base?
One counterintuitive result emerged: even if the total golfer base grows, the national participation rate would decline slightly. Seven of the 16 states projected to gain the most golfers currently have participation rates below the national average, while five of the seven states projected to lose the most golfers have rates above it. If the projections hold, location will matter—and in some states, it will matter a great deal. Subscribers can read on for the full analysis. Non-subscribers can join our community of progressive industry thinkers in one of three ways:
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