March Golf Weather Impact: Now That’s More Like It!
March’s results offer redemption for my prognosis that we’d see many months in ’19 with favorable “comps” as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) improved 9% compared to the same month last year. That result put us back in positive territory for the Year-to-Date (YtD) period which is now +2% (in our neutral zone). YtD regional GPH breadth however dipped to 1:2 with 6 favorable regions countered by 11 unfavorable regions (with 3 in the neutral zone of +/- 2% and the remaining 25 regions are out of season until April). Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, the weekparts (weekday vs. weekend) were flat but comprised of offsetting forces by individual day. Of notice, the Year-End (YE) forecast took a hit from the previous reading, dropping a couple points (our subscribers and SoI attendees know the initial number, everyone else will have to either guess or order one of our weather impact reports/services (see link below) to put you “in the know”).
Played Rounds data for February published by Golf Datatech were a dual-edge sword with the downside being they were -12% but the upside being that trailed the previously-reported double -digit GPH loss resulting in a healthy Utilization gain for the month. That gives our YtD Utilization result a boost but it’s still in negative territory (meaning changes in Played Rounds trail changes in Available Rounds). As always, beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid’s designated Top 25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “Fortunately I only had to eat crow for a month on my January prediction of many months of “up” weather this year (as February came crashing in) and March gets us back on the pattern I had expected. That said, we can also look at the ’19 March results against the 10-yr average and know that beating ’18’s March is nothing to write home about as it significantly lags “normal.” Against this backdrop, our friends over at GolfAdvisor penned a piece this past week heralding significantly higher Spring precipitation across a vast swath of the US so a) March proved them wrong at least in month 1 and b) why the heck would a golf advisory site headline widespread, anticipated poor weather? (oh, I forgot, GolfNow is now primarily concerned with eyeballs vs. rounds, see the upcoming April Perspective for my extended take on that). Among Pellucid’s Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, Utilization gainers were led by Phoenix while Atlanta, Dallas/Ft Worth and Houston vied for laggard leadership. Again, if you want to know which of our Top 25 Golf Markets posted Utilization gains, how much and what the dynamics are behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web).”
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist, fill in the information and you’ll be registered for the next edition on 4/15/19.
Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
• Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Analysis Tracking service ($299, 12 reports annually at national, 45 weather regions and 61 key markets levels) or
• Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership ($495 annually includes Outside the Ropes monthly newsletter, 2018 State of the Industry (Commentary report and Jim audio/video recording of quantitative results just released!), 2017 Industry Golf Consumer Franchise Scorecard, Geographic Weather Impact Analysis tracking and the Top 25 US Golf Markets Scorecard (update just released, some market movement in spots 5-25).
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (firstname.lastname@example.org) or Order Cognilogic.
You can order any of the above information services via Pellucid’s Online Store.