In the Southern and Coastal regions, where it counts between October and March, November was a good month which drove Golf Playable Hours (GPH) to +4% vs. last November at the national level. This slightly buoyed the Year-to-Date (YtD) deficit of GPH to -2% vs. year ago. Regional breadth for the YtD period however deteriorated to 1:2.9 with 8 regions having favorable weather offset by 23 regions with unfavorable weather (14 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%) meaning that some northern climes which were “on the bubble” slipped into negative territory based on November’s results. The one saving grace continues to be the fact that the GPH decline is being driven more by weekdays (-3%) than weekends (-1%). Given our higher utilization and rates on weekends, this should slightly offset the rounds and revenue impact of the unfavorable weather this year.
Looking back on October rounds demand as reported by Golf Datatech/NGF to calculate the facility Utilization Rate (UR), the month again showed a below average rate of 51% (comprised of a -7% decrease in Played Rounds against a GPH decline of -3%). Based on that utilization deficit, the YtD period Utilization eroded slightly to 52% (comprised of a 4% decrease in Played Rounds against a 3% decline in Capacity Rounds) which is 1 point lower than the 2010 year-end value. In other words most, but not all of our rounds deficit this year at the national level can be explained by unfavorable weather. Leading the YtD market utilization “winners”, among the markets that matter in rounds contribution, is Dallas up 6 points while the “biggest losers” are led by Denver losing 4 points. Dallas increases utilization via a slight rounds increase amidst unfavorable weather. Denver’s decline is driven by a drop in rounds despite favorable weather.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, “The generally favorable weather nationally was distributed relatively favorable to golf in November with most of the southern and coastal geographies being the largest beneficiaries of increased GPH. The Southeast, Florida, Gulf Coast, Texas (as a whole) and Desert SW saw nice increases vs. YA in GPH while the California Coast turned in parity performance with the San Francisco/Bay Area showing an increase and Southern California registering a decline. With eleven months in the books now, it’s inevitable that we’ll close the year with negative weather impact of 2-3% nationally which explains the bulk of our rounds deficit for the year. That would suggest that our shrinking golfer base playing fewer rounds is in reaction more to weather for 2011 than waning interest (that’s the silver lining in the cloud of lower rounds and flat revenue). As most US facilities turn their attention to assessing 2011 performance and the challenging task of forecasting and budgeting for 2012, it’s hard to imagine undertaking that seriously without incorporating weather’s impact (including using the weather Long-Term Norm for the upcoming year’s planning vs. using last year). To that end, Pellucid and Edgehill Golf Advisors recently announced the launch of their new web-based, real-time weather impact reporting at the facility level called Cognilogic. For information and to subscribe to the introductory offer (annual reports for 2011 and 2012 in addition to weather-impact-on-demand during the 12 interim monthly periods), contact Stuart Lindsay (edgehillgolf@msn.com) and ask for information.”
On the Golf Fees revenue side via the October PGA PerformanceTrak numbers, they’re reporting a 6% decline for the month (similar to the 6% decline in rounds meaning rate was even with YA). This brings the YtD GF revenue deficit to -2% which, compared to the 2% decline in rounds, means that rate (revenue per played round or RevpPR) is flat vs. YA (that’s not bad news). Further encouragement is that, when factoring in our -2% decline in Capacity Rounds, this would place Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) at parity with 2010. In other words, it would appear that our “factories” were as efficient in generating revenue in 2011 as they were in 2010 which would be some glimmer of stabilization for the average US facility.
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to http://www.pellucidcorp.com/utilities/guest.html, select any of the existing services for information and you will be registered for the next edition on 12/16/11.
In addition to the new facility-level Cognilogic delivery system at $240/yr, affordable weather impact geographic summary report options are available at regional level ($199/yr, 45 regions, 12 rpts) or market level ($299/yr, 61 markets & 45 regions, 12 rpts). For more specific information on how Pellucid’s Weather Impact capabilities answer key business performance questions, including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
Contact:
Jim Koppenhaver, President, Pellucid Corp.
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
www.pellucidcorp.com